5 House Hunting Mistakes to Avoid

General Mitchell Goode 21 Dec

Buying a home is one of the largest investments you will ever make! In order to make your home hunting experience the best it can be, there are a few key mistakes to avoid and be aware of before you start your journey:

  1. Not Getting Pre-Approved: One of the most important aspects of buying a home is the mortgage application and approval process. No matter what type of home you are looking for, you will need a mortgage. One of the biggest mistakes when it comes to the home-buying process is NOT getting pre-approved prior to starting your search. Getting pre-approved determines the actual home price you can afford as it requires submission and verification of your financial history to ensure the most accurate budget to fit your needs.
  2. Not Setting or Following a Pre-Determined Budget: Another mistake that people make when home-hunting is not setting, or following, a pre-determined budget. It can be tempting to start looking at the top of your budget, or even slightly over, but when you consider closing costs and the long-term financial responsibility of home ownership, it is best to avoid maxing yourself out. Getting pre-approved will help determine what you can afford, as well as making an appointment with your mortgage broker to determine your financial situation and the best options for you now, and in the future.
  3. Not Hiring a Real Estate Agent: Your mortgage broker and your real estate agent are two of the most important members of your homebuying A-Team! In today’s competitive real estate market, it can be very difficult to acquire property without the help of a realtor. One reason is that realtors can provide access to properties that never even make it to the MLS website! They can also gain access to information about homes that may come onto the market, before a listing is even signed. Most importantly though, a realtor understands the ins-and-outs of the home buying process and can tell you how to be successful in your endeavors to purchase a home by guiding you through the process from the first viewing to having your bid accepted.
  4. Focusing Too Much on Aesthetics: While we understand that bad interior design can really affect the perception of the home, you don’t want to be blindsided by it. At the end of the day, aesthetics can always be updated! Giving up the perfect price or location or size for a few aesthetic details (such as paint color, flooring, or even outdated appliances or light fixtures) is one of the biggest mistakes people make! Most homes have incredible bones that only need some minor tweaks to become your perfect space.
  5. Not Thinking Ahead: What you want and need in a house today, could be very different from what you want and need in a house in the future. It is important to be able to look ahead – are you planning on having children? Are your parents getting older and in need of a retirement space? These are things that are good to take into consideration when buying a new home. Buying a home isn’t a permanent decision as you can always sell your home later on if it doesn’t work for you in the future, but it is almost always easier to plan ahead so you can grow with—and not out of—your home whenever possible.

Article From: https://dominionlending.ca/uncategorized/5-house-hunting-mistakes-to-avoid

 

Canadian Home Prices Fell For the Ninth Consecutive Month As Activity Slowed

General Mitchell Goode 20 Dec

Another Month, Another Dip in Housing
Statistics released today by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) show home sales edged down in November. National home sales fell 3.3% between October and November, continuing the moderating sales trend that began last February on the precipice of unprecedented monetary policy tightening. Sales are down a whopping 39% from a year ago. The Bank of Canada has hiked their overnight policy rate by 400 bps, from 25 bps to 4.25%, triggering a whopping rise in mortgage rates.

About 60% of all local markets saw lower sales in November, led by Greater Vancouver and the Fraser Valley, Edmonton, the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) and Montreal.

The actual (not seasonally adjusted) number of transactions in November 2022 came in 38.9% below a near-record for that month last year. It stood about 13% below the pre-COVID-19 10-year average for November sales (see chart below).
New Listings

Sellers remain on the sidelines as the number of newly listed homes edged down last month by 1.3%, declining 6.1% from a year ago. Most sellers are waiting for interest rates to fall, either because they expect a rebound in sellers or are unwilling to buy new properties themselves with mortgage rates so high.

While sales have swung wildly, new listing flows have remained relatively steady through the recent turbulence and are very much in line with pre-COVID norms. There’s still not a lot of forced selling, which can exacerbate a price correction.

New listings fell in slightly more than half of the local markets. Among the larger markets in Canada, month-over-month movements in new supply were generally small, the only exception being some more significant declines in the B.C. Lower Mainland and Okanagan regions.

In terms of monthly new supply, the bigger picture is listings are not flooding the market. With the one exception of 2019, November 2022 saw the fewest new listings for that month in 17 years.

With sales down month-over-month by a little more than new listings in November, the sales-to-new listings ratio fell to 49.9% compared to 50.9% in October. The ratio has remained close to around 50% since May. The long-term average for this measure is 55.1%.

Based on a comparison of the current sales-to-new listings ratio with long-term averages, about 70% of local markets are currently in balanced market territory.

There were 4.2 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of November 2022. This is close to where this measure was in the months leading up to the initial COVID-19 lockdowns and still nearly a full month below its long-term average.
The Aggregate Composite MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) edged down 1.4% month-over-month in November 2022, continuing the trend that began in the spring.

The Aggregate Composite MLS® HPI now sits about 11.5% below its peak level. Breaking that down regionally, the general trend is prices are down somewhat more than they are nationally in Ontario and parts of B.C. and down by less elsewhere. While prices have softened to some degree almost everywhere, Calgary, Regina and Saskatoon stand out as markets where home prices are barely off their peaks at all.
The table below shows the decline in MLS-HPI benchmark home prices in Canada and selected cities since prices peaked in March when the Bank of Canada began hiking interest rates. More details follow in the second table below. The most significant price dips are in the GTA and the GVA, where the price gains were spectacular during the COVID-shutdown.
Bottom Line

OSFI announced this morning that the minimum qualifying rate for uninsured mortgages at federally regulated financial institutions would remain unchanged. They will review Guideline B-20 next month, but don’t hold your breath for an easing of the stress test.

In other news, housing starts were little changed last month at 264,600 annualized units. This is a strong level of new construction; the year-to-date average is roughly 265,000 units. Combined with the record 275,000 new units started last year, we are in line for the most significant two-year wave of housing starts on record. On a per-capita basis, we’re starting 2023 with an unprecedented construction boom despite higher costs, labour shortages and much higher interest rates.

Outlook   

The Bank of Canada is likely to raise the policy rate a couple of times by 25 bps in the first half of next year, pausing between rate hikes. They will not cut rates in 2023 even though the economy will post at least a mild contraction.

2024 will be a recovery year but don’t expect the overnight rate to return to the pre-Covid level of 1.75%. Indeed, the new cycle low will likely be more like 2.5% assuming inflation continues to trend downward. Price growth will be much more subdued than during the rocking ten-year period before the pandemic. Still, the underlying fundamentals of rapid population growth, mainly from immigration, bode well for sustained growth going forward.

 

Article from: https://dominionlending.ca/economic-insights/canadian-home-prices-fell-for-the-ninth-consecutive-month-as-activity-slowed

 

Bank of Canada Hikes Overnight Rate 50 bps to 4.25%

General Mitchell Goode 7 Dec

The Bank of Canada Hiked Rates The Full 50 bps
The Governing Council of the Bank of Canada raised its target for the overnight policy rate by 50 basis points today to 4.25% and signalled that the Council would “consider whether the policy interest rate needs to rise further to bring supply and demand back into balance and return inflation to target”. This is more dovish language than in earlier actions where they asserted that rates would need to rise further. Some have interpreted this new press release to imply that the Bank of Canada will now pause or pivot. I disagree.

I expect there will be additional rate hikes next year, but they will be more measured and not on every decision date. I also feel that the Bank will refrain from cutting the policy rate until 2024.

The Bank told us today that the “longer that consumers and businesses expect inflation to be above the target, the greater the risk that elevated inflation becomes entrenched”. CPI inflation remained at 6.9% in October, “with many of the goods and services Canadians regularly buy showing large price increases.

Measures of core inflation remain around 5%. Three-month rates of change in core inflation have come down, an early indicator that price pressures may be losing momentum. However, inflation is still too high, and short-term inflation expectations remain elevated”.

The economy remains in excess demand, and the labour market is very tight. The jobless rate in November fell to 5.1%, and job vacancies increased in September. Wage inflation came in at 5.6% y/y in November for the second consecutive month, marking six straight months of wage inflation above 5%. While headline and core inflation have moderated from their recent peaks, they exceed the 2% target by a large measure.

The Bank will monitor incoming data, especially regarding the overheated labour market where the jobless rate is at historic lows. Housing has slowed sharply in recent months, but as long as labour markets are tight, a slowdown in other sectors will be muted. The Bank now says it expects the economy “to stall” in the current quarter and the first half of next year.
Bottom Line

This will likely be the last oversized rate hike this cycle. The Governing Council next meets on January 25. Whether they raise rates will be data-dependent. If they do, it will likely be by 25 bps. Even if they pause at that meeting, it does not rule out additional moves later in the year if excess demand persists. I expect further monetary tightening, the continued bear market in equities, and a further correction in house prices.

Canadian benchmark home prices are already down nearly 10% nationwide. Several chartered banks told us this week that more than 25% of the remaining amortizations for their residential mortgages are 35 years and more. At renewal, these institutions expect to grant mortgages amortized at 25 years, which implies a substantial rise in monthly payments. That may well be three or four years away, but clearly, many households could be pinched unless mortgage rates plunge in the interim. I do not see the policy rate falling to its pre-COVID level of 1.75% over that period because inflation back then was less than 2%, an improbable circumstance as we advance. Although supply constraints may be easing, globalization has peaked. Semiconductors produced in the US will not be as cheap, and many rents, prices, and wages will be very sticky.