Canada’s Economy Unexpectedly Contracted in Q2

General Mitchell Goode 31 Aug

Housing Dampened Economy in Q2

This morning’s Stats Canada release showed that the economy unexpectedly contracted in the second quarter by 1.1%, down from the revised 5.5% gain in the first three months of the year. The Canadian dollar dipped on the news to $.7921 as questions of resiliency in the face of the delta variant mount. Economists in a Bloomberg survey were anticipating a 2.5% expansion. Adding to the disappointment, economic growth fell a further 0.4% in July, according to a preliminary estimate.

The weak GDP data reduces the odds of the Bank of Canada tapering their bond purchases at their policy meeting on September 8th. It also highlights the output gap–the degree to which the economy remains below full economic capacity–remains a big issue. The Bank has forecast the gap to close by the middle of 2022. While that remains uncertain, we continue to expect growth to rebound in the third quarter.

Increases in investment in business inventories, government final consumption expenditures, business investment in machinery and equipment, and investment in new home construction and renovation were not sufficient to offset the declines in exports (-4.0%) and homeownership transfer costs (-17.7%), which include all costs associated with the transfer of a residential asset from one owner to another.

Housing investment reshapes the economySince the third quarter of 2020, housing investment has emerged as the predominant contributor to economic activities and capital stock—with residential capital stock surpassing non-residential capital stock. Moreover, the average housing investment for the previous four quarters was 17% higher than the average over the last five years.

Housing Investment

Both new construction and renovations—the components of residential capital stock—have shown sustained growth since the third quarter of 2020. Because of the ability to work from home, savings from less travel and reduced participation in other activities, low mortgage rates and increases in home equity lines of credit, spending has continued to increase on new houses (+3.2%) and home renovations (+2.4%).After taking on $62.3 billion of residential mortgage debt in the last half of 2020, households added $84.2 billion more residential housing debt in the first half of 2021.

Supply chain disruptions continue to impact motor vehiclesShortages of microchips and other inputs curtailed trade in motor vehicles and domestic consumption. Household purchases of new passenger cars (-7.2%) and trucks, vans and sport utility vehicles (-1.6%) decreased, while business investment in medium and heavy trucks, buses and other motor vehicles fell 34.2%. Longer plant shutdowns because of international supply chain disruptions have constrained imports of parts and led to significant decreases in exports. Low production of motor vehicles and parts resulted in an 18.9% drop in exports of passenger cars and light trucks and an 8.7% decline in tires, motor vehicle engines and parts exports. Inventories had another quarter of significant drawdowns in response to supply needs.

Double-digit household savings rate continuesThe modest rise in household spending (+0.7%, in nominal terms) was outpaced by growth in disposable income (+2.2%), leaving households with more net savings than in the previous quarter. Household incomes were primarily bolstered by employees’ rising compensation and increasing transfers received from the government, which were partially offset by a 2.8% rise in personal income taxes.

Consequently, the savings rate reached 14.2%—the fifth consecutive quarter with a double-digit savings rate—as various pandemic-related restrictions and uncertainty continued to limit the scope of household consumption. The household savings rate is aggregated across all income brackets; in general, savings rates are greater in higher income brackets.

Bottom Line

Today’s release is, in some respects, ‘ancient history.’ It is still widely expected that the economy will rebound in the third quarter. With the surge in household savings and continued growth in personal disposable income, pent-up demand is likely to boost consumption for the remainder of this year. All eyes will be on the August employment report released Friday, September 10th. The Bank of Canada will likely continue to proceed cautiously. Another tapering of the bond-buying program will come under scrutiny, and forward guidance will continue to suggest no rate hikes until the second half of next year.

Article From: https://dominionlending.ca/economic-insights/canadas-economy-unexpectedly-contracted-in-q2

The Bank of Canada’s Monetary Policy Report and its Impact on You

General Mitchell Goode 27 Aug

The Bank of Canada’s Monetary Policy Report and its Impact on You.

The Bank of Canada (BoC) released its latest Monetary Policy Report (MPR) last week, and the outlook is optimistic. With the economy re-opening, vaccinations on the rise, and supply chains finding relief from the bottleneck they’ve experienced, the future looks promising.

What impact does the MPR have on you? What are the implications for mortgages? Let’s take a look at some areas of particular interest.

SOME GENERAL POINTS

While the economy may be starting to rebound, it hasn’t made a full recovery yet. To get back to pre-pandemic levels will take time, and the road may be winding. For that reason, the bank is maintaining its key policy rate at 0.25%. The historically low rate, which has been in place since the beginning of the pandemic, will only be raised when the economy can bear the weight of higher interest.

The BoC stresses that it takes time for monetary policy actions to affect the economy. They state that policy usually takes six to eight quarters for their full effects to be felt, so it’s always a question of playing the long game.

The MPR forecasts that the economy will grow by around 6% in 2021. This means that while the economy grew at a slow rate during the first half of the year, it’s anticipated that consumers are ready to start spending more, especially with COVID restrictions being lifted to various degrees nationwide.

While employment has been recovering, the rate has not yet returned to its pre-pandemic levels. That factor, coupled with the price of gasoline and the cost of services rising as business return, led the BoC to state that inflation will run at or above 3% through the year. The rate is projected to ease to the bank’s target of 2% in 2022, rising again then settling to the target rate by 2024.

Finally, the central bank currently purchases federal bonds at a rate of about $3 billion per week. These purchases are a means to help lower the rates on mortgages and businesses loans. Because these bonds have a guaranteed return on investment, they provide assurance for the federal government that they can balance their books with lower mortgage rates. That is, they will continue to see a return on investment, even if they aren’t recovering extra money from mortgages. The purchase of bonds will be reduced to $2 billion per week, as economic conditions have improved since the start of the pandemic.

WHAT THIS MEANS FOR MORTGAGES AND THE REAL ESTATE MARKET

The good news for homebuyers is that with the Bank of Canada’s rate remaining at 0.25%, mortgages will continue to be low for the next while. If you’re looking to get a new mortgage or to refinance your current one, now is a great time to do so. You’ll be able to take advantage of the incredibly low interest rate, securing it for your next term. This is assuming, of course, that you’re able to pass the stress test, if it applies to your purchase.

If you currently hold a variable rate mortgage, it could be time to think about locking in at a fixed rate. While the interest rates will stay low for the next while, they are destined to rise. While this may not happen until 2022, you don’t want to be caught unaware by rising interest.

When interest rates do rise, homeowners will feel the effects across the country. While cities like Toronto and Vancouver already have higher real estate prices, places like Montreal and Halifax are witnessing increasing prices as well. This, coupled with the high demand for real estate brought on by the pandemic, means that home buyers are taking out bigger loans to pay for their homes. When the mortgage rate increases, people who have more costly mortgages will have to pay more in monthly costs. In some cases, the increase in interest might make mortgage payments unendurable.

Be advised: The housing market remains competitive, and with the workforce returning, more individuals could be looking to purchase a home. If you are considering buying a home, take time to carefully calculate what you can afford for a down payment and how much of a mortgage you can handle. Knowing what you can safely afford when all your expenses are taken into account ensures that you only look at properties that are within your reach.

HOW TO PREPARE FOR HIGHER INTEREST RATES

As the rise in interest rates are inevitable, here are a few tips to help you ready yourself for the event.

If you are currently paying your mortgage on a monthly schedule, consider changing your payment plan to a bi-weekly one as soon as you can afford to do so. By doing this, you’ll be putting more money towards the principal of your mortgage and less to the interest.
Set up a dedicated account and start saving any extra money that you can. Most mortgage contracts allow for a lump-sum payment at certain times. When your time comes, apply any extra money that you have to the principal of your loan. This way, you’ll reduce the principal you have left to pay, in turn lowering the amount of interest you have to pay as well. When the mortgage rates inevitably rise, you won’t feel the effects as much as you would if you had a greater principal remaining.

Remember, the BoC states that policy actions take time, and that policies must be forward looking. When thinking about your mortgage and loans, you should be considering the future as well.

Think of ways to save money on your mortgage both in the present and in the future. Speak with your mortgage broker or lender, as they may have advice about how to lower the cost of your repayments. If you’re in the market for a new home, consider the inevitable rise in interest rates when calculating what you can afford to spend on a home. You don’t want to find yourself in a situation where you’re house poor, or even worse, having to foreclose on your mortgage.

Are you currently paying off a mortgage or looking at getting a new one? Let us know your experiences in the comments.

This is intended to be used as general information only and does not constitute financial advice. Please do your due diligence before making any financial decisions.

Article From: https://dominionlending.ca/sponsored/the-bank-of-canadas-monetary-policy-report-and-its-impact-on-you

All About Reverse Mortgages

General Mitchell Goode 26 Aug

All About Reverse Mortgages.

While there are many different mortgage options out there, there is one type of mortgage available for seniors: a reverse mortgage. This article will be your comprehensive guide to reverse mortgages, what they bring to the table, and how they may be beneficial.

what is a reverse mortgage?

The simplest explanation for this is that it is a type of mortgage loan that is available only to homeowners 55 years old and above. In essence, it lets them convert part of the equity that is in their homes into cash.

Initially, this was a product that was created with the idea of helping retirees with limited income stay in their homes. This is achieved by using the accumulated equity in their homes to cover health care and basic living expenses. When it comes to reverse mortgage proceeds, there is no limitation or restriction on how the proceeds can be used.

It is called a reverse mortgage because instead of making monthly payments to a lender – like a traditional mortgage – the lender makes payments to the borrower.

With this type of mortgage, the borrower isn’t required to pay back the loan until the home is sold, vacated, or everyone on the title passes away. So long as the borrower lives in the home, they are not required to make monthly payments towards the loan balance. However, there is still the matter of remaining current on property taxes, HOA dues where applicable, and homeowners’ insurance.

knowing the basics of reverse mortgages

Knowing the different types of reverse mortgages can be beneficial when it comes to making the selection that fits you best. We will get into each kind in detail. There are a few details, however, that lenders will generally look for. These are:

Your age as well as the age of your spouse if they are listed on the title of your house
Where you live
The condition of your home, its type, and its appraised value

A good rule of thumb to consider is that the older you are and the more equity you have in your home, the more money that you could get. This is, of course, impacted by current market trends, so keep that in mind. You could even use the money from the reverse mortgage to do this.

If there is a remainder left, you can use it for a wide range of things like:

help with regular bills
cover healthcare expenses
pay for home repairs or improvements
repay debts

There is a lot of flexibility when it comes to how you spend your loan, making it one of the more versatile options out there.

If you want to learn the plain facts on reverse mortgages, there are a number of great resources available online, including information from the Financial Consumer Agency of Canada.

how to access the money from a reverse mortgage

There are a couple of ways to get access to the money from your loan. This can be achieved by either taking the money in a one-time lump sum, for starters. It can also be taken in an upfront portion with the rest over time.

Generally, it’s good to ask your lender what the options are. There may also be restrictions and fees, so be aware of those as well. You also must pay off and close any outstanding loans or lines of credit tied to the home.

single-purpose reverse mortgage

This is the kind of mortgage that is offered by provincial, local, and nonprofit agencies. Not only that, but it is considered to be the least expensive process. The municipality or agency specifies the reason for this type of mortgage, and that will be its only use.

Homeowners can use the proceeds from this type of mortgage only to pay for a specific lender-approved item. The proceeds can cover property taxes or necessary repairs to the home. Whereas home-equity loan proceeds can be used for any purpose, the lender restricts how single-purpose proceeds can be used.

The difference here is that, with a home equity loan or line of credit, there is a monthly payment. With a single-purpose loan, there is no need for repayment until the home’s ownership changes, the borrower moves to a different residence, or passes away. It can also become due if the homeowners’ insurance on the property lapses or the city condemns the property.

The reason to go with his type of mortgage is that the homeowner can expect to pay far less in interest and fees. This differs greatly from a home equity conversion or proprietary reverse mortgage. While there is no need to make a payment until it is due, fees, interest, and mortgage insurance can reduce the amount that the homeowner can borrow.

pros and cons of a reverse mortgage

After all of that, you may still be wondering whether or not a reverse mortgage is the best idea. Like anything else in life, it comes with its own set of pros and cons involved. This makes it worth considering and looking further into.

Let’s start with the good news first.

THE PROS

This type of mortgage can be a very powerful source of income for older individuals. It can be for those who need to increase their retirement income or take on a big household project. Since the largest asset that most retirees have is their home – and it is likely paid off – this allows for an increase in income without increasing monthly payments. It is a great way for retirees to stay in their homes.

Not only that, but it can be highly beneficial because it requires no payment. That is until ownership of the home changes hand, the home is vacated or condemned, or the borrower passes away. It is the quickest and easiest path to substantially more income for a retired person who may not otherwise have that kind of access to additional funds.

THE CONS

Generally speaking, the interest rates tend to be much higher than most other types of mortgages out there. It is also worth considering that the equity in your home could go down. Combined with interest on your loan adding up, it could create quite the gap.

While you won’t need to repay the loan until you pass or sell the home, paying the loan and interest in full will fall on the shoulders of your estate. Not only that, but it must be repaid within a specific period of time.

The general costs associated with this type of mortgage also tend to be much higher. While there is certainly greater flexibility in how you get and spend your money, it comes at a cost, literally.

the verdict

Ultimately, it is up to you to determine if the benefits offset the higher cost and burden of repayment that falls on your estate. Getting the money from your loan, as well as what you can spend it on, is perhaps one of the most flexible mortgage options out there. This is especially true for seniors.

It also provides much-needed income for those retirees who may not have adequate funds for retirement. This shortfall can happen for a lot of reasons, and it is common for retirees to exceed their expected retirement life.

Weighing the pros and cons is essential regardless of the loan type. A reverse mortgage has all the potential to be beneficial to seniors in need of funds and provides greater flexibility for acquiring and spending that money.

Article From: https://dominionlending.ca/mortgage-tips/all-about-reverse-mortgages

Canadian Inflation Hits Highest Reading in Two Decades

General Mitchell Goode 23 Aug

Annual Inflation Hits 3.7% in Canada–A New Election Issue

This morning’s Stats Canada release showed that the July CPI surged to a 3.7% year-over-year pace, well above the 3.1% pace recorded in June. This is now the fourth consecutive month in which inflation is above the1% to 3% target band of the Bank of Canada. And given the flash election, opposition parties are already making hay. “The numbers released today make it clear that under Justin Trudeau, Canadians are experiencing a cost of living crisis,” Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole said in a statement. He went on to suggest that the Liberal government is stoking inflation with its debt-financed government spending programs.

While it is true that deficit spending has surged during the pandemic, the same is also true for nearly every country in the world. Moreover, accelerating inflation is a global phenomenon and most central banks believe it to be temporary. Certainly, Tiff Macklem is firmly of that view, as is the Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

Supply disruptions and base effects have largely caused the rise in inflation. Semiconductor production, for example, slumped during the 2020 lockdowns, and then couldn’t be ramped up fast enough when demand for cars and electronics returned, leading the prices of new and used autos to rise at a record pace. Prices for airfares and hotel stays also jumped. Companies found themselves short of workers as they reopened, leading some to offer bonuses or boost wages and subsequently raise prices for consumers.

Central bankers believe that the price pressures are transitory, representing temporary shocks associated with the reopening of the economy. Lumber prices, for example, spiked when demand for new homes returned and have since normalized (see the chart below). To be sure, above-target inflation has heightened uncertainty. The central banks do not want to choke off the economic recovery through misplaced inflation fears. Many Canadians remain out of work, and long-term unemployment is still very high. Moreover, the recent surge of the delta variant proves that the recovery is uncertain.

Governor Tiff Macklem, whose latest forecasts show inflation creeping up to 3.9% in the third quarter before easing at the end of the year, has warned against overreacting to the “temporary” spike.

Shelter Prices Rising Fastest

Prices rose faster year over year in six of the eight major components of Canadian inflation in July, with shelter prices contributing the most to the all-items increase. Conversely, prices for clothing and footwear and alcoholic beverages, tobacco products and recreational cannabis slowed on a year-over-year basis in July compared with June. Year over year, gasoline prices rose less in July (+30.9%) than in June (+32.0%). A base-year effect continued to impact the gasoline index, as prices in July 2020 increased 4.4% on a month-over-month basis when many businesses and services reopened.

In July 2021, gasoline prices increased 3.5% month over month, as oil production by OPEC+ (countries from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries Plus) remained below pre-pandemic levels though global demand increased.

The homeowners’ replacement cost index, which is related to the price of new homes, continued to trend upward, rising 13.8% year over year in July, the largest yearly increase since October 1987.

Similarly, the other owned accommodation expenses index, which includes commission fees on the sale of real estate, was up 13.4% year over year in July.

Year-over-year price growth for goods rose at a faster pace in July (+5.0%) than in June (+4.5%), with durable goods (+5.0%) accelerating the most. The purchase of passenger vehicles index contributed the most to the increase, rising 5.5% year over year in July. The gain was partially attributable to the global shortage of semiconductor chips.

Prices for upholstered furniture rose 13.4% year over year in July, largely due to lower supply and higher input costs.

Core Measures

The average of core inflation readings, a better gauge of underlying price pressures, rose to 2.47% in July, the highest since 2009.

Monthly, prices rose 0.6% versus a consensus estimate of 0.3%. Rising costs to own a home are one of the biggest contributors to the elevated inflation rate, following a surge in real-estate prices over the past year.

Bottom Line

Today’s inflation data likely did little to alter the Bank of Canada’s view that above-target inflation will be a transitory phenomenon. They are already ahead of most central banks in tapering the stimulus coming from quantitative easing. They do not expect to start increasing interest rates until the labour markets have returned to full employment, which they judge to occur in the second half of 2022. In the meantime, pent-up demand in Canada is huge as people tap into their involuntary savings during the lockdown to pay higher prices at restaurants, grocery stores and gas stations. Financial markets appear to be sanguine about the prospect for rate hikes, as bond yields have been trading in a very narrow range.

Article From: https://dominionlending.ca/economic-insights/canadian-inflation-hits-highest-reading-in-two-decades

Canadian Home Sales Slow for Fourth Consecutive Month

General Mitchell Goode 17 Aug

The Slowdown In Canadian Housing Continued in July

Today the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) released statistics showing national existing home sales fell 3.5% nationally from June to July 2021–the fourth consecutive monthly decline. Over the same period, the number of newly listed properties dropped 8.8%, and the MLS Home Price Index rose 0.6% and was up 22.2% year-over-year.

While sales are now down a cumulative 28% from the March peak, Canadian housing markets are still historically quite active (see Chart below). In July, the decline in sales activity was not as widespread geographically as in prior months, although sales were down in roughly two-thirds of all local markets. Edmonton and Calgary led the slowdown, but these cities didn’t experience falling sales until recently. In Montreal, in contrast, where sales began to moderate at the start of the year, activity edged up in July.

The actual (not seasonally adjusted) number of transactions in July 2021 was down 15.2% on a year-over-year basis from the record for that month set last July. July 2021 sales nonetheless still marked the second-best month of July on record.

“While the moderation of sales activity continues to capture most of the headlines these days, it’s record-low inventories that should be our focus,” said Cliff Stevenson, Chair of CREA. Most markets are in sellers’ market territory.

New ListingsThe number of newly listed homes dropped by 8.8% in July compared to June, with declines led by Canada’s largest cities – the GTA, Montreal, Vancouver and Calgary. Across the country, new supply was down in about three-quarters of all markets in July.

This was enough to noticeably tighten the sales-to-new listings ratio despite sales activity also slowing on the month. The national sales-to-new listings ratio was 74% in July 2021, up from 69.9% in June. The long-term average for the national sales-to-new listings ratio is 54.7%.

Based on a comparison of sales-to-new listings ratio with long-term averages, the tightening of market conditions in July tipped a small majority of local markets back into seller’s market territory, reversing the trend of more balanced markets seen in June.

Another piece of evidence that conditions may be starting to stabilize was the number of months of inventory. There were 2.3 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of July 2021, unchanged from June. This is extremely low – still indicative of a strong seller’s market at the national level and most local markets. The long-term average for this measure is twice where it stands today.

Home PricesThe Aggregate Composite MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI) rose 0.6% month-over-month in July 2021, continuing the trend of decelerating month-over-month growth that began in March. That deceleration has yet to show up in any noticeable way on the East Coast, where property is relatively more affordable.

Additionally, a more recent point worth noting (and watching) just in the last month has seen prices for certain property types in certain Ontario markets look like they might be re-accelerating. This could be in line with a re-tightening of market conditions in some areas.

The non-seasonally adjusted Aggregate Composite MLS® HPI was up 22.2% on a year-over-year basis in July. While still a substantial gain, it was, as expected, down from the record 24.4% year-over-year increase in June. The reason the year-over-year comparison has started to fall is that we are now more than a year removed from when prices really took off last year, so last year’s price levels are now catching up with this year’s, even though prices are currently still rising from month to month.

Looking across the country, year-over-year price growth averages around 20% in B.C., though it is lower in Vancouver and higher in other parts of the province. Year-over-year price gains in the 10% range were recorded in Alberta and Saskatchewan, while gains are closer to 15% in Manitoba. Ontario sees an average year-over-year rate of price growth in the 30% range. However, as with B.C., gains are notably lower in the GTA and considerably higher in most other parts of the province. The opposite is true in Quebec, where Montreal is in the 25% range, and Quebec City is in the 15% range. Price growth is running a little above 30% in New Brunswick, while Newfoundland and Labrador is in the 10% range.

Bottom Line

Sales activity will continue to gradually cool over the next year, but it will take higher interest rates to soften the housing market in a meaningful way. Local housing markets are cooling off as prospective buyers contend with a dearth of houses for sale. Though increasing vaccination rates have begun to bring a return to normal life in Canada, that’s left the country to contend with one of the developed world’s most severe housing shortages and little prospect of much new supply becoming available soon.

Article From: https://dominionlending.ca/economic-insights/canadian-home-sales-slow-for-fourth-consecutive-month

Canadian Job Growth Continued in July As Unemployment Rate Fell to 7.5%.

General Mitchell Goode 10 Aug

Canada’s Jobs Recovery Continued in July

Canada’s labour market continued its recovery in July as health restrictions were lifted, but the gains were shy of expectations. The report signals the economic rebound is intact and shows companies are finding workers as pandemic restrictions vanish. The smaller-than-expected increase, though, could cast some doubt on the pace of hiring. The gains last month were largely in full-time private-sector employment, particularly among youth and women.

The Labour Force Survey showed employment rose 94,000 (+0.5%) in July, adding to the 231,000 (+1.2%) increase in June. The two months reversed the 275,000 jobs lost during lockdowns in April and May. Of the three million jobs lost at the start of the crisis, 2.74 million have now been recovered. The employment rate was 60.3% in July, still 1.5 percentage points below the pre-pandemic rate.

The unemployment rate fell 0.3 percentage points to 7.5%, matching the post-February 2020 low hit earlier this year.

Employment growth in July was almost entirely in Ontario. Youth aged 15 to 24 and core-aged women aged 25 to 54 accounted for the bulk of gains in the month. Women were hardest hit by the pandemic’s loss of childcare/schooling, so the make-up of employment gains will likely be skewed towards them.

The number of employed people who worked less than half their usual hours fell by 116,000 (-10.1%) in July. Total hours worked were up 1.3% and were 2.7% below their pre-pandemic level.

Self-employment was little changed in July and was down 7.1% (-205,000) compared with February 2020. The number of self-employed workers has seen virtually no growth since the onset of the pandemic.

The number of employees in the public sector fell by 31,000 (-0.7%) in July, the first decline since April 2020. Nearly half of the monthly decrease was in Quebec (-15,000; -1.5%) and was partly due to a larger-than-usual summer decrease in the number of educational services workers. Despite this decline, public sector employment at the national level was up 150,000 (+3.8%) compared with February 2020.

In terms of provinces, Ontario accounted for the majority of July’s improvement, as employment increased by 72k in the province. Manitoba (+7k), Nova Scotia (+4k), and Prince Edward Island (+1k) also saw employment advance on the month. New Brunswick (-3k), Saskatchewan (-5k), and B.C. (-3k) lost jobs in July.

Lastly, total hours worked improved by a robust 1.3% in July, but it is still 2.7% below its pre-pandemic level.

The Canadian jobs report coincided with the release on Friday of surprisingly strong U.S. payroll numbers, where 943,000 positions were added last month.

Bottom Line According to the Bank of Canada, employment will need to surpass pre-pandemic levels before complete recovery is declared because the population has grown since the start of the crisis.

July was another solid month for the Canadian labour market as the loosening of public health restrictions across the country spurred hiring activity. That said, capacity limits and travel restrictions held back high-touch businesses from operating at full capacity, limiting job gains in July.

Indeed, employment in high-touch services is still well below pre-pandemic levels. Even with gains in July, accommodation and food services employment was nearly 20% below its February 2020 level. It’s important to note that July’s labour survey was taken during the week of July 11th, and restrictions in some provinces were loosened at the end of that week. So, we could see the recovery continue to strengthen in August.

There are growing headwinds, however. Concerns around the Delta variant are rising, and some countries, harder hit by the virus, are re-imposing restrictions. Canada has not yet been compelled to do so due to low hospitalization levels, but cases are rising. While the impressive vaccination drive should keep hospitalization rates low, health worries could dent consumer and business confidence. Indeed, the economy’s path forward will be closely linked to the evolution of the pandemic.

Article From :https://dominionlending.ca/economic-insights/canadian-job-growth-continued-in-july-as-unemployment-rate-fell-to-7-5

Support Local Farmers’ Market This Weekend

General Mitchell Goode 6 Aug

Orillia Farmers’ Market

City Centre, 50 Andrew St S Suite 300, Orillia, ON L3V 7T5

Friday 5:00pm – 9:00pm / Saturday 8:00am – 12:30pm

Orillia Fairgrounds Farmers’ Market

4500 Fairgrounds Rd, Severn, ON L3V 0Y2

Saturday 8:00am – 1:00pm

Now, more than ever, it’s important to know where our food comes from and to be able to rely on fresh produce and locally produced foods. Fortunately, the Orillia area has many farmers markets that offer healthy food harvested within a short drive – plus delicious homemade baking to make meals extra special.

Looking for a distinctive gift? Visitors to our local farmers markets enjoy vendors who make everything from wine and beer to handcrafted furniture, pottery and clothing. There’s a good chance you’ll even find something for your furry friends!

The Orillia Farmers Market, located in downtown Orillia, is one of the longest-running markets in the province, with its beginnings in 1842. This season, they are welcoming even more vendors than last year.

Although fairly new in comparison, the Fairgrounds Market at ODAS Park, just outside of Orillia, boasts more than 40 producers and farmers who “make it, bake it or grow it” so you don’t have to.

Article From: https://www.orillialakecountry.ca/free-things-to-do/

Banks & Credit Unions vs Monoline Lenders

General Mitchell Goode 22 Jul

We are all familiar with the banks and local credit unions, but what are monoline lenders and why are they in the market?

Mono, meaning alone, single or one, these lenders simply provide a single yet refined service: to fulfill mortgage financing as requested. Banks and credit unions, on the other hand, offer an array of other products and services as well as mortgages.

The monoline lenders do not cross-sell you on chequing/savings account, RRSPs, RESPs, GICs or anything else. They don’t even have these products and services available.

Monolines are very reputable, and many have been around for decades. In fact, Canada’s second-largest mortgage lender through the broker channel is a monoline lender. Many of the monoline lenders source their funds from the big banks in Canada, as these banks are looking to diversify their portfolios and they ultimately seek to make money for their shareholders through alternative channels.

Monolines are sometimes referred to as security-backed investment lenders. All monolines secure their mortgages with back-end mortgage insurance provided by one of the three insurers in Canada.

Monoline lenders can only be accessed by mortgage brokers at the time of origination, refinance or renewal. Upon servicing the mortgage, you cannot by find them next to the gas station or at the local strip mall near your favorite coffee shop. Again, the mortgage can only be secured through a licensed mortgage broker, but once the loan completes you simply picking up your smartphone to call or send them an email with any servicing questions. There are no locations to walk into. This saves on overhead which in turn saves you money.

The major difference between a bank and monoline is the exit penalty structure for fixed mortgages. With a monoline lender the exit penalty is far lower. That is because the banks and monoline lenders calculate the Interest Rate Differential (IRD) penalty differently. The banks utilize a calculation called the posted-rate IRD and the monolines use an IRD calculation called unpublished rate.

In Canada, 60% (or 6 out of every 10) households break their existing 5-year fixed term at the 38 months. This leaves an average 22 months’ penalty against the outstanding balance. With the average mortgage in BC being $300,000, the penalty would amount to approximately $14,000 from a bank. The very same mortgage with a monoline lender would be $2,600. So, in this case the monoline exit penalty is $11,400 less.

“If we were to calculate to break a mortgage of $400,000 in Ontario today after 38 months with a Bank it would cost approximately $16,455.20. The very same mortgage with a Monoline Lender it would cost approximately only $3,656, saving you $12,799.20.” (Mitchell Goode)

Once clients hear about this difference, many are happy to get a mortgage from a company they have never heard of. But some clients want to stick with their existing bank or credit union to exercise their established relationship or to start fostering a new one. Some borrowers just elect to go with a different lender for diversification purposes. (This brings up a whole other topic of collateral charge mortgages, one that I will venture into with another blog post.)

There is a time and a place for banks, credit unions and monoline lenders. I am a prime example. I have recently switched from a large national monoline to a bank, simply for access to a different mortgage product for long-term planning purposes.

An independent mortgage broker can educate you about the many options offered by banks and credit unions vs monolines.

From: Michael Hallett, AMP – DLC Producers West Financial

Canadian Home Sales Continued Their Slowdown in June

General Mitchell Goode 15 Jul

The Slowdown In Canadian Housing Continued in June

Today the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) released statistics showing national existing home sales fell 8.4% nationally from May to June 2021, marking the third consecutive monthly decline. Over the same period, the number of newly listed properties fell 0.7%, and the MLS Home Price Index rose 0.9%, a marked deceleration from previous months.

Activity nonetheless remains historically high, but in contrast to March’s all-time record, it is now running closer to levels seen in the first half of 2020. While sales are now down a cumulative 25% from their peak, and below every other month in the last year, June transactions still managed to set a record for that month (see chart below).

For the second month in a row, sales were lower in every province. The steepest drops were in B.C. (-14.6% m/m) and the Atlantic provinces (down a combined 9.8% m/m). In Ontario, sales fell 9.0% m/m. They posted a much smaller 1.9% m/m drop in Quebec.

June’s decline was helped along by stricter stress test rules implemented at the beginning of the month. We expect these rules to continue to weigh on demand in the near term, although the amount of tightening this time around (+46 bps) pales in comparison to early 2018 (+220 bps), the last time the rules were changed.The actual (not seasonally adjusted) number of transactions in June 2021 was up 13.6% on a year-over-year basis.

“While there is still a lot of activity in many housing markets across Canada, things have noticeably calmed down in the last few months,” said Cliff Stevenson, Chair of CREA. “There remains a shortage of supply in many parts of the country, but at least there isn’t the same level of competition among buyers we were seeing a few months ago.”

New Listings

The number of newly listed homes edged back a slight 0.7% in June compared to May. In contrast to the past year’s synchronicity in demand and supply trends, the little-changed national new supply figure in June reflected a mixed bag of results, with about half of local markets seeing gains – welcome news for frustrated buyers.The national sales-to-new listings ratio was 69.2% in June 2021, the lowest reading since last August. That said, the long-term average for the national sales-to-new listings ratio is 54.6%, so it remains historically high; although, it has been steadily moderating since peaking at 90.8% back in January (see chart below).

Based on a comparison of sales-to-new listings ratio with long-term averages, more than half of all local markets were in balanced market territory in June, measured as being within one standard deviation of their long-term average. The was a significant shift compared to most of the past year which saw a majority of markets well into seller’s market territory.

There were 2.3 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of June 2021, up from 2.1 months in May and up from an all-time record-low of just 1.8 months in March. That said, it is still very much in sellers’ market territory. The long-term average for this measure is a little over 5 months.

Home PricesThe Aggregate Composite MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI) rose 0.9% month-over-month in June 2021, continuing the trend of decelerating month-over-month growth that began in March. That deceleration was initially seen more so on the single-family side; although, that trend is now also playing out in the townhome and apartment segments.

The non-seasonally adjusted Aggregate Composite MLS® HPI was up 24.4% on a year-over-year basis in June. Based on data back to 2005, this was another record year-over-year increase; although, given how price growth took off in July of last year, this June 2021 reading may end up being the peak for year-over-year growth.

Looking across the country, year-over-year price growth is averaging around 20% in B.C., though it is lower in Vancouver and higher in other parts of the province. Year-over-year price gains in the 10% range were recorded in Alberta and Saskatchewan, while gains are closer to 15% in Manitoba. Ontario is seeing an average year-over-year rate of price growth in the 30% range, however, as with B.C., gains are notably lower in the GTA and considerably higher in most other parts of the province. The opposite is true in Quebec, where Montreal is in the 25% range and Quebec City is in the 15% range. Price growth is running a little above 30% in New Brunswick, while Newfoundland and Labrador are in the 10% range.

Bottom Line

Since peaking in March, home sales are down 25% from the inferno levels early this year, but demand is still historically strong. Despite the steep pullback, seasonally adjusted sales are roughly 18% above pre-pandemic trends. When the economy opens fully and immigration resumes, the underlying fundamentals for housing demand will rise, especially as university students return to campus living, and adult children move into their own nests.

Sales activity will continue to gradually cool over the next year, but it will take higher interest rates to soften the housing market in a meaningful way.

Condo sales in markets such as Toronto and Vancouver have picked up from their pandemic lows in recent months. This is the polar opposite of what happened earlier in the pandemic, when sales of relatively expensive detached units dominated, raising average prices. Moving forward, if condos consume a rising share of the overall sales pie (perhaps through strong demand for these units, slowing sales of detached houses, or some combination of both), compositional effects could continue to weigh on average prices.

Article From: https://dominionlending.ca/economic-insights/canadian-home-sales-continued-their-slowdown-in-june

Bank of Canada Tapers Bond-Buying Again. Bank of Canada ‘On the Vanguard’ of Unwinding Stimulus

General Mitchell Goode 14 Jul

The Bank of Canada raised its inflation forecast in the newly released July Monetary Policy Report (MPR), making it one of the most hawkish central banks in the world. The Bank announced its third action to reduce its emergency bond-buying stimulus program by one-third. The central bank was among the first from the advanced economies to shift to a less expansionary policy last April when it accelerated the timetable for a possible interest-rate increase and pared back its bond purchases. In today’s press release, the Bank announced it would adjust its quantitative easing (QE) program again to a target pace of $2 billion per week of Government of Canada bond purchases–down $1 billion from its prior target of $3 billion per week. This puts upward pressure on bond yields, all other things constant. No doubt, the federal government’s funding of the enormous Covid-related budget deficits has been abetted by the central bank’s bond-buying.The pace of purchases of Canadian government bonds was as high as $5 billion last year. The central bank acquired a net $320 billion of the securities since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic. The bank owns about 44% of outstanding Canadian government bonds.

The Bank of Canada has said it wants to stop adding to its holdings of government bonds before it turns its attention to debating rate increases. Still, officials chose not to accelerate the projected timeline for a possible hike today.

In holding the overnight rate at the effective lower bound of .25%, the Governing Council reaffirmed its “extraordinary forward guidance” that the Canadian economy still has considerable excess capacity. The recovery continues to require extraordinary monetary policy support. “We remain committed to holding the policy interest rate at the effective lower bound until economic slack is absorbed so that the 2% inflation target is sustainably achieved,” the central bank said in the policy statement. In the Bank’s July projection, this happens sometime in the second half of 2022.

Swaps trading suggests investors are fully pricing in a rate hike over the next 12 months and a total of four over the next two years, which would leave Canada with one of the highest policy rates among advanced economies. This puts the Bank of Canada ahead of the Fed in raising interest rates. Chair Powell told Congress today that the US economy isn’t ready for bond tapering. “Reaching the standard of ‘substantial further progress’ is still a ways off,” he said in prepared remarks. In the U.S., investors aren’t pricing in any rate hike over the next year and only two over the next two years. July Monetary Policy Report

The Bank revised its forecast for Canadian GDP growth this year from 6.5% in the April MPR to 6.0% because of the more restrictive third-wave pandemic lockdown in the second quarter. Growth is now expected to pick up strongly in the third quarter of this year. Consumer confidence has returned to pre-pandemic levels, and a high share of the eligible population is vaccinated. As the economy reopens, consumption is expected to lead the rebound, increasing spending on services such as transportation, recreation, and food and accommodation.

Housing resales have moderated from historically high levels but remain elevated (Chart below). Other areas of housing activity—such as new construction and renovation—remain strong, supported by high disposable incomes, low borrowing rates and the pandemic-related desire for more living space.

CPI Inflation Boosted By Temporary Factors

The Bank revised up its inflation forecast for this year but asserted once again that inflation would return to 2% in 2022. This is a controversial call consistent with central-bank mantras around the world. The BoC said, “Three sets of factors are leading to this temporary strength. First, gasoline prices have risen from very low levels a year ago and are above their pre-pandemic levels, lifting inflation. Second, other prices that had fallen last year with plummeting demand are now recovering with the reopening of the economy and the release of pent-up demand. Third, supply constraints, including shipping bottlenecks and the global shortage of semiconductors, are pushing up the prices of goods such as motor vehicles.

The BoC expects CPI inflation to ease by the start of 2022 as the temporary factors related to the pandemic fade. Economic slack becomes the primary factor influencing the projection for inflation dynamics thereafter. The uncertainty around the outlook for the output gap and inflation remains high. Because of this, the estimated timing for when slack is absorbed is highly imprecise. In the projection, this occurs sometime in the second half of 2022. After declining to 2% during 2022, inflation is expected to rise modestly in 2023 as the economy moves into excess demand. The excess demand and resultant increase in inflation to above target are expected to be temporary. They are a consequence of Governing Council’s commitment to keeping the policy interest rate at the effective lower bound until economic slack is absorbed so that the 2% inflation target is sustainably achieved.

Inflation is expected to return toward the target in 2024. The projection is consistent with medium- and long-term inflation expectations remaining well-anchored at the 2% target. Both businesses and consumers view price pressures as elevated in the near term. A large majority of respondents to the summer 2021 Business Outlook Survey now expect inflation to be above 2% on average over the next two years. Nonetheless, firms view higher commodity prices, supply chain bottlenecks, policy stimulus and the release of pent-up demand as largely temporary factors boosting inflation higher in the near term.

Bottom Line

Only time will tell if the Bank of Canada is correct in believing that inflation pressures are temporary. Financial markets will remain sensitive to incoming data, but for now, bond markets seem willing to accept their view. The 5-year GoC bond yield has edged down from its recent peak of 1.0% posted on June 28th to a current level of .936%. As well, the Canadian dollar has weakened a bit, to US$0.7993, since the release this morning of the BoC policy statement. The loonie, however, remains among the strongest currencies this year vis a vis the US dollar.

Article From: https://dominionlending.ca/economic-insights/bank-of-canada-tapers-bond-buying-again

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