The Mortgage Financing Process

General Mitchell Goode 14 Jul

The number one question for any potential homebuyer or someone new to the mortgage process is “what does this process entail?”. The following is a simple outline to give you an idea of the process and help you understand what to expect as you embark on your home buying journey!

STEP 1 – BE PREPARED

Having the following information on hand before meeting with your mortgage professional will help them determine what you qualify for and help them determine the best mortgage product for you:

Contact information for your employer and your employment history
Proof of address and your address history
Government-issued photo ID with your current address
Proof of income for your mortgage application
Down payment proof (amount and source)
Savings and investments proof
Details of current debts and other financial obligations

STEP 2 – GET PRE-APPROVED

One of the best things any potential homeowner can do when starting the home buying process is to get pre-approved. Mortgage pre-approval requires submission and verification of your financial history and can help you determine your price range, understand the monthly mortgage payment associated with that price range and provide the mortgage rate for your first term.

It is important to note that pre-approval does not mean that a lender has fully reviewed your documentation and you may still need the approval of a mortgage insurer. However, it does have a lot of benefits that can give you a “leg-up” in your search!

BENEFITS OF PRE-APPROVAL

Getting pre-approved not only makes the search easier by helping to determine your price range and budget, but pre-approval also guarantees the interest rate for 90-120 days while you search for that perfect home. Plus, the rate will automatically be adjusted down with any market reductions. Another benefit to pre-approval is that, when it comes time to purchase, pre-approval lets the seller know that securing financing should not be an issue. This is extremely beneficial in competitive markets where lots of offers may be coming in.

Quick Tip: Being entirely candid with your home-buying team throughout the process will be vital! Hidden debt or buying a big-ticket item during your 90-120 day pre-approval can change the amount you are able to borrow. It is best to refrain from any major purchases (such as a new car) or life changes (such as changing jobs) until after closing and you have the keys to your new home!

STEP 3 – HIRE A REALTOR

In today’s competitive real estate market, it can be very difficult to acquire property WITHOUT the help of a realtor. One of the reasons realtors are integral to the home buying process is that they can provide access to properties that never even make it to the MLS website. Realtors also gain access to information about homes that may come onto the market before a listing is even signed.

Most importantly though, a realtor understands the ins-and-outs of the home buying process and can tell you how to be successful in your endeavors to purchase a home by guiding you through the process from the first viewing to having your bid accepted.

STEP 4 – SHOP THE MARKET & MAKE AN OFFER

Once you have found the property that meets your needs, you’ll put in an offer that’ll be accepted or countered. This may go back and forth until you reach an acceptable price with the vendor. To start home shopping today, check out the listings on Rew.ca!

STEP 5 – OFFER IS ACCEPTED

Once your offer is accepted with the condition of financing, you will need to do a few things to finalize the sale:

Ask for a realtor intro between your mortgage professional and realtor.
An appraisal may be required, which will be determined and arranged by your mortgage professional.
Send in any remaining documents required for financing (income confirmation, down payment confirmation, etc).
Arrange a home inspection.
Receive the lender’s approval on property and final approval letter.

STEP 6 – REMOVE CONDITIONS

At this point, your financing is in place and you’re ready to proceed with the purchase of the property.

STEP 7 – LAWYER’S OFFICE

You’ll be asked to provide any money that’s to be used as your down payment, which is not already on deposit with your realtor. Typically, you’ll go in 1-2 days prior to the completion date.

Before you start on your home buying journey, be sure to take advantage of the expert advice that DLC Mortgage Professionals can offer. As experts in mortgages, brokers can help walk you through the process and find you the best mortgage product to suit your unique needs! The best part? It won’t cost you a penny! Mortgage professionals are paid out by the lender when they register a new contract. Therefore, all that matters is finding YOU, the client, the best possible mortgage.

Article From: https://dominionlending.ca/mortgage-tips/the-mortgage-financing-process

Canadian Jobs Market Rebounds in June As Lockdown Eases

General Mitchell Goode 12 Jul

Canada’s Jobs Recovery Resumed in June As Lockdown Began to Ease

This morning, Statistics Canada released the June 2021 Labour Force Survey showing employment rose 230,700 (1.2%) in June, rebounding from a cumulative decline over the previous two months of 275,000. Total hours worked were little changed. The national unemployment rate fell 0.4 percentage points to 7.8%.

Jobs continue to swing back and forth as the various COVID waves drive lockdowns and reopenings. Hopefully, we’re in the last of the reopenings. Services accounted for all of the gains. Hospitality jobs were the biggest gainer, as expected, adding 101k positions, but they remain well below pre-virus levels. Restrictions are expected to continue easing through the summer, which should mean more solid gains over the next couple of months. Other sectors seeing a boost from the reopening were retail/wholesale (+78k), education (+26k) and health care (+20.5k). Goods sectors were down across the board, with losses concentrated in construction (-23k) and manufacturing (-12k).

Beyond the headline increase, one of the bigger stories in this report is the sharp 0.6 ppt rise in the participation rate to 65.2%. That’s the largest increase in a year and leaves the rate 3-4 ticks away from pre-COVID levels. Compare that to the U.S., where the participation rate is still nearly 2 ppts lower than in early 2020. The rise in the participation rate limited the decline in the jobless rate to 0.4 ppts to 7.8%, still some wood to chop there. The rising participation rate should alleviate some concerns about widespread labour shortages.The bulk of the gains were in pandemic-exposed sectors, like retail, food and accommodation, that got hit most by the new containment measures. Employment in accommodation and food services was up 101,000. The retail sector added 75,000 jobs.

Increasing vaccination rates and falling Covid-19 case counts have allowed the country to finally re-open restaurants, bars and retail stores after months of closures. Ontario began allowing patio dining earlier this month, and several cities in Quebec have further relaxed restrictions, allowing indoor dining for the first time this year.

With the June gains, Canada has recovered 2.65 million of the 3 million jobs lost at the height of the pandemic last year. The nation created 263,900 part-time jobs, with full-time employment down 33,200.Employment growth in June was entirely in part-time work and concentrated among youth aged 15 to 24, primarily young women. Increases were greatest in accommodation and food services and retail trade, consistent with the lifting or easing public health restrictions affecting these industries in late May and early June in many jurisdictions.

The number of employed people working less than half their usual hours fell by 276,000 (-19.3%) in June. Total hours worked were little changed and were 4.0% below their pre-pandemic level.

The employment increase in June was in part-time work, which rose by 264,000 (+8.0%) following combined losses of 132,000 over the previous two months. The overall level of part-time employment was essentially the same as in February 2020, before the COVID-19 pandemic. Increases in the month were driven by accommodation and food services and retail trade—two industries where part-time workers represent an above-average proportion of employment—and were concentrated among youth.

After falling by 143,000 over the previous two months, full-time work was little changed in June and was 336,000 (-2.2%) lower than its pre-pandemic level.

GAINS WERE DRIVEN BY PRIVATE-SECTOR EMPLOYEES, WHILE SELF-EMPLOYMENT DECLINES.

The number of private-sector employees rose by 251,000 (+2.1%) in June, following two monthly declines. As of June, the number of private-sector employees was 2.5% lower (-313,000) than in February 2020.

In the public sector, employment rose by 43,000 (+1.1%) in June, bringing it to 180,000 (+4.6%) above pre-pandemic levels. Employment in this sector has trended up following the initial wave of the pandemic, particularly driven by increases in health care and social assistance, public administration, and educational services.

The number of self-employed workers fell by 63,000 (-2.3%) in June and was down 7.2% (-207,000) compared with February 2020. Self-employment is a broad category that includes workers in various situations, including working owners of incorporated or unincorporated businesses and independent contractors. Compared with June 2019, declines in the number of self-employed were widespread across multiple industries and were concentrated among the self-employed with paid help.

THE EMPLOYMENT RATE REMAINS BELOW PRE-PANDEMIC LEVELS.

To fully understand current and emerging labour market trends, it is essential to consider employment change against the backdrop of population change, which totalled 1.1% (+334,000) between February 2020 and June 2021. To keep pace with this population growth and maintain a stable employment rate—that is, employment as a proportion of the population aged 15 and over—employment would have had to grow by 203,000. Instead, total employment was 340,000 lower in June than in February 2020, and the employment rate was 1.7 percentage points lower (60.1% compared with 61.8%).

NUMBER OF CANADIANS WHO WORKED FROM HOME DROPS BY NEARLY 400,000

Among Canadians who worked at least half their usual hours in June, the number who worked from home fell by nearly 400,000 to 4.7 million. For 2.6 million of these people, working from home represented an adaptation to the COVID-19 pandemic, as this was not their usual work location. At the same time, the number of people working at locations other than home rose by approximately 700,000 to 12.3 million.

Almost one-third (31.4%) of workers aged 25 to 54 and more than one-quarter (27.2%) of those aged 55 and older worked from home in June. Due to their concentration in industries where working from home is less feasible, such as accommodation and food services, a far smaller proportion of youth aged 15 to 24 (12.9%) did so.

Regionally, Ontario and Quebec led the way higher, though B.C. and Nova Scotia had solid increases as well. Interestingly, even with restrictions easing through most of the country, only five provinces reported job gains.

Bottom Line

The jobs report is the last major piece of economic data before next week’s Bank of Canada policy decision, where it’s expected to continue paring back its stimulus efforts. The Bank of Canada is among the first from advanced economies to shift to a less expansionary policy, having already cut its purchases of Canadian government bonds to $3 billion weekly from a peak of $5 billion last year.

Analysts anticipate that will come down to C$2 billion per week at the July 14 meeting before eventually falling to a weekly pace of about C$1 billion by early next year. In addition to the bond tapering, the market has priced in at least one interest rate hike by this time next year.

Canada’s economy remains 340,000 jobs shy of pre-pandemic levels. The unemployment rate was below 6% before the pandemic.

With vaccination rates rising and restrictions easing, economists are predicting a strong rebound in the second half. According to a Bloomberg News survey of economists earlier this month, Canada’s expansion is seen accelerating to an annualized pace of 9.1% in the third quarter, with a 6% gain in the final three months of 2021. Consumer and business confidence regarding the outlook has recently hit record highs.

Article From: https://dominionlending.ca/economic-insights/canadian-jobs-market-rebounds-in-june-as-lockdown-eases

Backyard Renovation Ideas

General Mitchell Goode 5 Jul

With summer underway, it might be time to consider a backyard upgrade! These don’t have to be luxurious or expensive, but a couple tweaks can give your yard a facelift and make your outdoor space feel brand new! Check out my backyard renovation ideas below:

1. Reviving Your Deck: You don’t necessarily have to tear it down and start over to have a fresh deck. Chances are the structure is in good shape. A remodel job featuring new decking, rails and stairs can save a ton of money over a full rebuild.

2. Creating a Peaceful Area: If you enjoy spending time in your yard or on your deck, but are finding that nosey neighbours, traffic noise or barking dogs are impacting your serenity, don’t fret! A privacy fence is a great option to replace sections of your existing railing and make your deck more private, quiet and comfortable!

3. Watch Your Step! Another great way to give your backyard a quick makeover is to add a practical walk path. Gravel is the easiest to handle and the least expensive option. While it looks less formal than brick or stone, it can be complemented with a stone or flower border for that extra appeal.

4. Did Someone Say Water Feature?! If you have space in your yard for a unique water feature, such as a fountain, pool, artificial waterfall – or even a cute pond! – this can make your space feel that much more magical.

5. Set the Mood: When it comes to setting the mood for your backyard space, proper lighting can go a long way. From string lights to lanterns or path lighting, the options are endless (and affordable!) allowing you to create the perfect summer escape.

Article From: Dominion Lending Centres

Are You Ready for Home Ownership?

General Mitchell Goode 29 Jun

While most people know the main things they need to buy a home, such as stable employment and enough money for a down payment, there are a few other factors that may help you realize you’re ready – perhaps even earlier than you thought! In fact, there are four main things that can help you determine if you are ready for home ownership:

YOU CAN AFFORD YOUR DOWN PAYMENT AND ONGOING COSTS

It is easy for potential homeowners to get wrapped up in focusing on having enough money for the down payment and then forget about afterwards. It is important that you are not only financially able to afford the down payment, but that you can manage the monthly mortgage payments and ongoing maintenance as well. My Mortgage Toolbox app from Dominion Lending Centres has some great calculators to help you determine what you can afford on a monthly basis before you get in too deep. If you have enough funds in the bank for a down payment and are able to manage the monthly costs associated with the size and price range of home you would need, then you may be ready to start house-hunting!

YOU HAVE GOOD CREDIT

As most people know, credit score plays a major role in qualifying for financing to purchase a home. If you have a good credit score, which should now be at least 680 to qualify, then you have nothing to worry about! However, if your credit score is below this, it is more likely that you will be paying higher interest rates (and therefore have higher payments), or that you could be denied all-together. Before you begin your home buying journey, it is vital to have your credit score in order to ensure you can get the best mortgage product and rates. Working with a mortgage professional can help you get on the right track in the shortest time possible. Sometimes all that’s needed are a few subtle changes, or debt consolidation, to improve your credit score within a couple months.

NO OTHER LARGE, UPCOMING EXPENSES

Do you plan on buying two new vehicles in the next two years? Are you thinking of starting a family? Are you considering going back to school? Although you may think you can afford to purchase a home right now, it is vital to be honest about your future plans. What does your life look like in 1 year? 5 years? 10 years? If you know that you aren’t planning on incurring big expenses that you need to factor into your budget anytime soon, then that’s something that may help you decide to buy a home.

YOUR ARE DISCIPLINED

One of the most important factors for purchasing a home is budgeting. You have to know what you can afford – and stick with it! It is easy to be tempted by a gorgeous 6 bedroom home or a backyard pool or private community, but at what cost? If going all-in is going to leave you scrambling each paycheck or derail any plans of future financial stability, it is worth rethinking. Understanding what you NEED in a new home, versus what you WANT, is a good step towards determining what you’re looking for and planning a budget that suits your needs so that you can continue to live comfortably.

These are just four signs that you may be ready to purchase a home. If you’re seriously considering buying or selling, talking with a Dominion Lending Centres mortgage professional can help ensure you have the best experience when it comes to buying a home!

Article From: https://dominionlending.ca/mortgage-tips/are-you-ready-for-home-ownership

Low Rates Helping Borrowers Pay Off Mortgages at Record Pace

General Mitchell Goode 23 Jun

Home prices may be astronomical in certain parts of the country, but historically low mortgage rates are allowing borrowers to pay off their mortgages faster than ever.

At today’s average rates, 61% of a new homebuyer’s very first mortgage payment is going towards principal repayment, according to data from Edge Realty Analytics.

In the early 2000s, that percentage was 26.5%. The change is even more drastic when looking back at the 1990s, where just 11.9% of a homebuyer’s first payment went towards paying down the principal, or the 1980s, when that percentage was a minuscule 4.6%.

The result is a much faster build-up of equity over a short period of time, so long as interest rates remain low.

After the first five years of mortgage payments, today’s homebuyers borrowing at today’s prevailing rates will have paid back more than a fifth of their mortgage (16.5%). Here’s a look at how that compares to past decades:

(Courtesy: Edge Realty Analytics)

“Homeownership represents a very aggressive forced saving program,” Mortgage Professionals Canada noted in its annual consumer report.

“As a result (and even before we consider the impact of price growth) housing equity is built very rapidly,” the report noted. “This excellent ‘net affordability’ goes a long way to explaining why homebuying activity has remained strong in Canada and why a large majority of Canadians see homeownership as financially better than renting, despite the rapid run–up in house prices and the higher burden of mortgage (principal plus interest) payments.”

(Source: Mortgage Professionals Canada)

Not only have low interest rates allowed borrowers to repay their mortgages more quickly, but it’s also kept housing moderately “affordable” despite the 38.4% run-up in average home price in the past 12 months.

“If it were not for the extremely low interest rate, most cities in Canada, especially Toronto, Ottawa, Vancouver and Montreal, would be in overvalued territory,” Alberta Central chief economist Charles St-Arnaud wrote in a recent analysis. “It means that the main driver for affordability is the record low level of interest rates.”

But Rates Won’t Stay Low Forever

All good things must come to an end, and that goes for ultra-low mortgage rates.

The Bank of Canada has made it abundantly clear that it expects to start raising interest rates by late next year.

How much rates will increase in the Bank’s next rate-hike cycle is anyone’s guess. But for what it’s worth, markets are pricing in at least eight 25-bps hikes over the next five years, which would bring Canada’s overnight rate to 2.25%, up two percentage points from its current record-low of 0.25%.

But even a more modest rise in rates of as little as 100-150 basis points could “push the valuation metrics into overvalued territory,” St-Arnaud noted, making today’s still somewhat “affordable” housing market patently unaffordable for most.

“Our simulations show that many cities in Canada will struggle with housing affordability as interest rates increase,” he added. “A 150-bps increase in mortgage rates could be enough to generate significant headwinds on some housing markets and house prices.”

Article From: https://www.canadianmortgagetrends.com/2021/06/low-rates-helping-borrowers-pay-off-mortgages-at-record-pace/

Mortgage Broker vs Mortgage Specialist.

General Mitchell Goode 18 Jun

Broker vs specialist: what’s the difference?

To most consumers outside of the mortgage space, the terms “mortgage broker” and “mortgage specialist” would seem interchangeable – but they aren’t. As a potential homeowner, the differences are more important than you might think.

First and foremost, it is important to understand the definition of these groups before looking at the major differences. Mortgage brokers belong to an independent firm. This allows them unique access to rates and offers from various lenders’ (banks, credit unions, private lenders and alternative options). Conversely, a mortgage specialist is employed by a single lender and works to sell that particular institution’s products.

BENEFITS OF WORKING WITH A MORTGAGE BROKER:

1. MORTGAGE BROKERS WORK FOR YOU!

Unlike a mortgage specialist, who is paid by the bank to sell their products, a broker works for YOU! A broker works as a link between you and the lender; they filter through the offerings to find you the best rate and product. The best part? A mortgage broker’s services are FREE! Brokers are paid by the lender of choice once the ideal mortgage product has been found. This means you get to utilize their expert advice and lender access at no cost!

2. MORTGAGE BROKERS CARE FOR THEIR CLIENTS

Similarly to the above, Mortgage Brokers care for their clients. Not only because they work for YOU but also because most brokers are self-employed and rely on referrals. As a majority of their business is done through word-of-mouth, this results in the best experience for clients. Every DLC Mortgage Broker is motivated to help you achieve your dream of home ownership!

3. MORTGAGE BROKERS ARE LICENSED PROFESSIONALS!

It might surprise you to know that mortgage and bank specialists are not required to have any formal training. While some lenders do provide in-house training, this varies from the provincially regulated course that mortgage brokers are required to pass. Mortgage brokers also continue to maintain their education through license renewals and educational courses. As a result, a mortgage broker provides expert advice you can trust!

4. MORTGAGE BROKERS HAVE GREATER ACCESS TO RATES

A mortgage broker is employed by an independent firm and has access to 90+ lenders, while a mortgage specialist can only access their particular lenders’ products. This can mean a big difference in rates and mortgage terms for homeowners! If you are looking at getting a mortgage with your bank (say Bank X), then your mortgage specialist can tell you exactly what Bank X offers. But, by seeking the advice of a mortgage broker, they can tell you what Bank X offers… as well as your options with Bank Y, Bank Z, Bank A, etc. When you are looking for the best mortgage product to fit your unique needs, more options to choose from just makes sense!

5. MORTGAGE BROKERS FOCUS ON MORTGAGES

When it comes to mortgage brokers, all they do is mortgages; they live and breath home ownership! Mortgage specialists and bank staff are often trained with a focus on cross-selling. While you may have booked an appointment to discuss a mortgage, many times they will focus on other bank products. This might include offering credit cards, insurance, RRSP, lines of credit, etc. This can sometimes be helpful, but many potential homeowners may find it overwhelming or pushy; especially when they are specifically looking for a single product – a mortgage.

6. MORTGAGE BROKERS OFFER FLEXIBLE HOURS

Most banks don’t offer great business hours, which can make it hard to book an appointment with a specialist. As many mortgage brokers are self-employed, they are motivated to assist clients. This means they are often available for appointments outside of business hours such as evenings or weekends. This can be especially comforting to individuals who are new to the mortgage process and may have questions or concerns that they would prefer to have answered right away.

Article From: https://dominionlending.ca/mortgage-tips/mortgage-broker-vs-mortgage-specialist

5 Approval Roadblocks

General Mitchell Goode 18 Jun

When in the process of buying a home, there is nothing worse than having your mortgage broker or lawyer call and say “there is a problem”.

If you have found your dream home and negotiated a fair price, which was accepted, and you have supplied all the documentation to your broker, you probably assume everything is fine. The reality is that your financing approval is based on the information the lender was provided at the time of the application. If there have been any changes to your financial situation, the lender is within their rights to cancel your mortgage approval.

To ensure that you don’t encounter any last-minute issues on your home buying journey, there are five major approval roadblocks to be aware of and avoid for a smooth transaction:

EMPLOYMENT

When submitting a request for financing, whether a mortgage or car loan or to handle personal debt, one of the most important aspects the lender looks at is employment. If you were working at Company X for five years at $50,000 a year and – just before your deal is finalized – you change jobs, the lender will now require proof from the new job. This can include proof that probation for this new job is waived, or new job letters and pay stubs at the very least. If you change industries, they will want to see more proof that you are capable of keeping this job. For any employment involving overtime or bonuses, the lender often requests a two-year average, which you would not be able to provide at a new position. Another employment change that could hurt your financing approval would be if you decide to change from an employee to a self-employed contractor.

When it comes to financing, it is best to wait to make any major employment or life changes until after the deal has gone through.

DOWN PAYMENT SOURCE

As mortgage financing is based on the initial information provided, you will most likely need to do a final verification of the down payment source. If it is different than what the lender has approved, it could spell trouble for your financing approval. Even if you said that your down payment was coming from savings and, at the last minute, mom and dad offer you the funds as a gift, it could affect your approval. This is an acceptable source of down payment, but only if the lender knows about it in advance and has included this in their risk assessment, but it can end a deal.

DEBT

A week or two before your possession date, the lender will obtain a copy of your credit report and look for any changes to your debt load. Since mortgage approval is based on how much you owed on that particular date, it is important not to increase your debt before the deal is finalized. Buying a new car or items for the new home must be postponed until after possession; even if they are “do not pay for 12 months” campaigns because you will need to fulfil those payments, regardless of when they start.

BAD CREDIT

One of the biggest roadblocks to mortgage approvals is credit card payments. When you enter the financing process, it is important that your credit score remains positive. If your credit score falls due to late payments, this can cause major issues with your financing. Even if you have a high-ratio mortgage in place which requires CMHC insurance, a lower credit score could mean a withdrawal of the insurance and removal of any financing approval.

MISSING IDENTITY DOCUMENTS

Before a deal is finalized, the lawyer must verify your identity documents and see that they match the mortgage documents. You may not think it needs to be said, but it is important to use your legal name when you apply for a mortgage. Even if you go by your middle name or a nickname, all legal documents should match.

Keep in touch with your Dominion Lending Centres mortgage professional right up to possession day. Make this a happy experience rather than a heartbreaking one.

Article From: https://dominionlending.ca/mortgage-tips/5-approval-roadblocks

The Slowdown In Canadian Housing Continued in May

General Mitchell Goode 15 Jun

Today, the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) released statistics showing national existing home sales fell 7.4% nationally from April to May 2021, building on the 11% decline in April. Over the same period, the number of newly listed properties fell 6.4%, and the MLS Home Price Index rose 1.0%, a marked deceleration from previous months.

Activity nonetheless remains historically high, but in contrast to March’s all-time record, it is now running closer to levels seen in the second half of 2020 (see chart below). Month-over-month declines in sales activity were observed in close to 80% of all local markets. It was a mixed bag of results, with a slowdown in sales observed in most large markets across Canada.

“While housing markets across Canada remain very active, we now have two months of moderating activity in the books, and that goes for demand, supply and prices,” stated Cliff Stevenson, Chair of CREA. “More and more, there is anecdotal evidence of offer fatigue and frustration among buyers, and the urgency to lock down a place to ride out COVID would also be expected to fade at this point given where we are with the pandemic”.

New Listings

The number of newly listed homes declined by 6.4% in May compared to April. New listings were down in about 70% of all local markets in May.

The national sales-to-new listings ratio was 75.4% in May 2021, down slightly from 76.2% posted in April. The long-term average for the national sales-to-new listings ratio is 54.6%, so it remains historically high; although, it has been moderating since peaking at 90.7% back in January.

Based on a comparison of sales-to-new listings ratio with long-term averages, only about a quarter of all local markets were in balanced market territory in May, measured as being within one standard deviation of their long-term average. The other three-quarters of markets were above long-term norms, in many cases well above.

As the chart below shows, Edmonton was one market in balance, and the Greater Vancouver Area was moving closer to balance, but others remain a seller’s market.

There were 2.1 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of May 2021, up from a record-low 1.7 months in March but still well below the long-term average for this measure of over 5 months.

Home PricesThe Aggregate Composite MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI) rose 1% month-over-month in May 2021 – a noticeable deceleration. The most recent deceleration in month-over-month price growth has come from the single-family space compared to the more affordable townhome and apartment segments.

The non-seasonally adjusted Aggregate Composite MLS® HPI was up 24.4% on a year-over-year basis in May. Based on data back to 2005, this was another record year-over-year increase; although, it is not likely to go much higher.

While the largest year-over-year gains continue to be posted across Ontario, this is also where month-over-month price growth has been slowing the most. Meanwhile, price growth has continued to accelerate in some other parts of the country, thus reducing the year-over-year growth disparity between Ontario and other provinces.

Bottom Line

The near-uniform nature of the housing market activity (in what is usually a highly regionalized market) is still a key feature of this cycle. Indeed, 22 of 26 markets tracked by CREA saw sales fall in May, while all but one market saw the average transaction price up by double-digits from a year ago (sorry, Thunder Bay). Among the tightest markets in the country based on the sales-to-new listings ratio are the Okanagan and Kawartha Lakes; cottage country is still on fire.

The two-month slowdown in Canadian housing is welcome news. The OECD recently released a report showing that New Zealand, Canada and Sweden have the frothiest housing markets in the world. The UK and the US are near the top as well. Clearly, COVID led many around the world to alter their abode, driving prices higher almost everywhere.

Article From: https://dominionlending.ca/economic-insights/canadian-housing-continues-to-moderate-in-may

Millions of Canadians already missing payments due to COVID-19

General Mitchell Goode 9 Jun

We are still relatively early in the coronavirus crisis but already many people are missing payments.

A new report from insolvency practitioners Bromwich+Smith with Leger Research has found that 49% of households in Ontario and Alberta, and more than half in British Columbians, have suffered an immediate income reduction since the crisis began.

The share of households who reported already falling behind with payments on credit cards, utilities, or telecoms is 24% in Alberta, and 19% in Ontario and BC.

“The results are quite staggering really. Of course, we get a sense of what is happening when we read the news, but the survey results make it far more real having interviewed 750 people across BC, Alberta and Ontario,” says David de Lange, Senior Vice President of Leger Research.

Getting help
Most of those struggling will reach out for help from the federal and provincial governments but almost a quarter of respondents said they didn’t know how they would adjust to a reduction in income.

Bromwich+Smith advises that getting government help is a good first step for those that cannot pay their debts followed by asking their mortgage lender to see if a deferral could work for them or call a licensed insolvency trustee to understand if restructuring debts makes sense for their current state.

Article From: https://www.mortgagebrokernews.ca/archived/millions-of-canadians-already-missing-payments-due-to-covid19-328024.aspx

Bank of Canada Holds Rates and QE Steady–Asserting That Both the Upside in Inflation and the Downside in GDP is Temporary

General Mitchell Goode 9 Jun

The Bank of Canada left the benchmark overnight policy rate unchanged at 0.25% and maintained its current pace of GoC bond purchases at its current pace. The Governing Council renewed its pledge to refrain from raising rates until the damage from the pandemic is fully repaired. The $3 billion weekly pace of bond-buying–known as quantitative easing–will decline as the recovery proceeds. In April, at their last meeting, the Bank reduced the pace of GoC bond buying from $4 billion to $3 billion per week. The central bank was among the first from advanced economies to shift to a less expansionary policy in April when it accelerated the timetable for a possible interest-rate increase and pared back its bond purchases.

The Bank’s view regarding the domestic economy appears to be little changed despite the April Monetary Policy Report (MPR) overestimating Q1 GDP growth by 1.4 percentage points. Indeed, today’s Policy Statement notes that Q1 GDP growth was “a robust 5.6 percent” and that the details of the report point to “rising confidence and resilient demand.” Concerning Q2, the third wave lockdowns are “dampening economic activity…largely as anticipated.” Note that the April MPR projected 3.5% growth in Q2 GDP, while the consensus forecast currently sits at 0% for Q2, with downside risk.

The Bank also noted that “Recent jobs data show that workers in contact-sensitive sectors have once again been most affected. The employment rate remains well below its pre-pandemic level, with low-wage workers, youth and women continuing to bear the brunt of job losses.” The chart below shows that the labour market is still below the Bank’s target for a full recovery.

Bank of Canada Upbeat Over the Medium Term

“With vaccinations proceeding at a faster pace, and provincial containment restrictions on an easing path over the summer, the Canadian economy is expected to rebound strongly, led by consumer spending. Housing market activity is expected to moderate but remain elevated.”

On the inflation front, there were no surprises. The Statement says that inflation has risen to the top of the 1-3% control range due to base effects and gasoline prices. The rise in the core measures is blamed on temporary factors as well. The Bank anticipates headline inflation will stay around 3% through the summer before pulling back later in the year.On the cautious side, the BoC highlights that the labour market still has a way to go before healing. There’s also uncertainty surrounding COVID variants.

The concluding paragraph didn’t change much. It reiterates that there “remains considerable excess capacity” and that policy rates will stay at the lower bound until “economic slack is absorbed,” which the April MPR said was in 2022H2. Concerning further tapering, the “assessment of the strength and durability of the recovery” will guide that decision.

The C$ barely garnered a mention yet again, with the Statement noting the recent gains and accompanying rise in commodity prices. The market might view the lack of concern here as a green light for further strength.

Bottom Line

The Bank of Canada is looking through “transitory” ups in inflation and downs in GDP. With vaccination rates continuing to ramp up significantly, and provinces beginning a gradual reopening process, the economy will rebound substantially beginning in June.

Indeed, with the near-term growth outlook increasingly bright, concerns have shifted to rising production input prices and the prospect for a sharp recovery in consumer demand to stoke inflation pressures. For now, the BoC is positing that near-term increases in consumer price growth rates will prove ‘transitory.’ But there have also been signs of harder-to-dismiss firming in most measures of underlying price growth gauges, including the BoC’s own preferred core measures edging up towards or above the 2% inflation target.

July’s meeting will likely be a bit more interesting with the Bank issuing more details in another Monetary Policy Report. We don’t see any need for dramatic forecast revisions at this stage, and the BoC’s guidance that rates might have to start increasing in the second half of next year remains appropriate. It looks like the main question will be around further tapering of the BoC’s asset purchases. The BoC didn’t signal an imminent taper (we didn’t think it would) but said decisions regarding the pace of purchases would be guided by its assessment of the strength and durability of the recovery. If incoming data aligns with the BoC’s forecasts, we could see it reduce weekly bond-buying again in July to $2 billion per week from $3 billion. If not, September might serve as a backup as the bank seeks to prevent its footprint in the bond market (nearly 44% at the end of May) from becoming too large while at the same time setting itself up to shift QE to reinvestment only well in advance of the first interest rate hike.

Article From: https://dominionlending.ca/economic-insights/bank-of-canada-holds-overnight-rate-steady

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